According to the People’s Bank of China’s announcement, foreign exchange deposits in China have crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. Economists believe that this will give the Chinese government a lot more freedom to allow the outflow of capital from the country.
A major reason for this increase in foreign exchange flowing into China is a rise in demand for certain Chinese products during the pandemic-related restrictions. Chinese exporters have performed exceedingly well in the past few months and have gathered a large foreign currency store.
The rising trend in the Chinese market is also attracting more investors. Many foreign investors exchange dollar currency for the Chinese Yuan to purchase shares in the Chinese stock market. But now China is facing a different problem. It does not have many avenues to invest its foreign currency. Experts believe that the Chinese government needs to urgently introduce some policy reforms in the country so that Chinese investors can spend more of their foreign currency in overseas markets.
At present Chinese banks and lenders are using most of their foreign exchange deposits to fund loans in the country as well as overseas. The heavy inflow of dollars into China, but a relatively lower outflow rate, is now pushing down dollar value in China very fast. So banks are now buying Yuan instead of the dollar currency. This is strengthening the Chinese Yuan. But investors fear that if the Yuan becomes too strong, hot money will flow into the country, and the Chinese import business will face a devastating situation.
To curb the issue, China is already trying to control the liquidity of the dollar. The ceiling for investing overseas has been increased to record levels. It has also put in place investment schemes for capital outflow that will allow Chinese investors to invest more than ever before in overseas markets.
George Magnus of Oxford University’s China Center, speaking about the Chinese situation, has said that foreign exchange inflow surges can benefit an economy. Still, these surges are usually temporary and can reverse at any time leading to dire consequences for the economy. It now remains to see how well China can utilize its Forex inflow to prepare itself against potential future reversals.