In this episode, we will look into the facts that support the further upward movement of BTC price and what the market should do to continue with that move. At the same time, we will look at the indicators that suggest that we will shortly be in a fast reversal and the price could dump to the bottom.
This is Wunderbit Trading and we’re carrying on with our weekly Bitcoin and Ethereum price analysis, and let’s go straight into the content. As usual in front of you, you can see four different charts, but they are all related to Bitcoin, the one on the top left the BTC futures, the one on the top right is the BTC dominance and the two at the bottom are related to the BTCUSD and BTCUSDT prices. The one left is from Bitstamp exchange, on the right, is from Binance.
So, first things first, let’s switch off all our predictions that were made in the past and just look at the weekly time frame to analyze the candlesticks themselves. And you can see that both on the futures markets and on the spot markets we were seeing some solid gains in terms of the price and that’s actually quite good. At the same time, looking three weeks in the past, we can see that we rebound from 200MA and the price was steadily increasing and the price gained almost 28 percent.
Bitcoin Futures Price Overview
So, switching our analysis and going into the futures market first, as usual, we’ll start from the daily chart. Over here we can definitely see that we closed the gap which was formed in the previous week. At the same time, what we can see here is that the volume today is actually quite good, the volume is increasing, it’s above the 20 moving average based on the volume. Another good thing is that there is still a good potential to go higher, at least towards the area of 7600 BTC/USDT, at which we will face the certain resistance level.
At the same time, going to the 4-hour chart, what we can see on the futures market is that currently, we’re actually going towards the 200MA which is also in the same area of 7500 BTC/USD. So this will be a very important area of resistance. And if the bulls will be able to break it and then stay above it, this will signify that we’re actually starting to roll rather than to have the retracement of the overall downward move. At the same time, we would be able to see some consolidation over here because we’re currently stuck in between the 50MA and 200MA.
Once again, I would like to point out that the volume is actually quite good in the futures markets as well, we can see the nice spike and exactly the same spike was over here when we were actually going down, so the volume is building up, which is a very good and strong sign for the bulls.
BTC Dominance Analysis
Looking at the BTC dominance and starting from the daily chart, we can see that currently what we predicted in the previous week is actually something we are experiencing right now. We went towards the 200MA, we checked it as a resistance and we’re bouncing down from it. Once again, the 50MA will act as the support right now, so we might see some sort of consolidation which is going between the altcoins and the Bitcoin, but then we’re expecting a further downward move for the BTC dominance, which means that some of the altcoins can grow really rapid and really fast. But the most important thing is obviously the BTC price on the spot markets.
Bitcoin Price Analysis on Bitstamp Exchange
So, starting from the Bitstamp exchange, what we can see here is obviously that we can see the triangle like that, where the price is currently consolidating. We’re trying to break above this crucial level over here. We already did it once on the 2nd of April and the price there was around 7220 BTC/USD. So only breaking that level and with a solid candlestick, and the candlestick will close above this, will signify that we’re actually breaking above this triangle and we’re carrying on with an upward movement.
However, there is a word of caution that the 50MA and the 200MA both of them will act as a resistance. So we should be extremely careful in terms of signifying that this is an upward move and just buying straight away here. What else can happen is that even though on the 4-hour chart we broke above the 200MA, we still can recheck it and then try and make another attempt. At the same time, we can see that this top of the triangle will act as a resistance and we might go down towards the bottom line of the triangle and only then try to break it.
The other scenario is, obviously, that this will hold, this resistance line will hold and we will carry on with a downward movement, and this is something that we also expect if the price if the buyers if the bulls will not be able to push the price higher. So, basically, what we expect here is that we might see a retracement back towards the 200MA, we might see another golden cross on the four-hour charts and then try to break the resistance once again.
If it won’t hold, if the volume will not be sufficient enough, if the bulls will not be able to push the price higher, then there could be a nice downward move towards the area of 5800 BTC/USD, and this is something to keep in mind. We can also put the Fibonacci retracement starting from the beginning of that move towards the final area right now, and we can see that the area of 5800 BTC/USD is slightly below the 50 percent of the Fibonacci retracement, which is also quite a good and healthy retracement if we are carrying on with this upward move in the long run.
Bitcoin Price Analysis on Binance Exchange
So that currently looks at the Binance exchange over here. What we can definitely see is that we are trying our best to actually go beyond this level of resistance of around 7100 BTC/USDT. Whether it will be possible or not will be decided within this week. And for that reason, we’re actually closely monitoring what’s happening right now on the spot exchange markets.
For that reason, we actually went for the fifteen minutes timeframe because you can see that earlier this morning we started the solid move. We can see the increase in the volume, at least some volume was building up and we can see a nice and solid increase. At some point, we should see the retracement of that.
So if we’re carrying on with an upward move based on the Fibonacci retracement, we should reach at least 38 percent Fibonacci retracement, so this will be the area of around 6900 BTC/USDT. If the bulls will be able to hold this position, then it is a very nice and strong signal for the upward move. However, let’s look very closely in the other scenario which is also possible. And for that purpose, we’ll go to the daily time frame. So if we believe that this was the triangle that we were experiencing during the downward move in July and September and December and not just a downward movement in a channel, then this is exactly the area where we should meet some resistance right now.
So this is the bottom, this is the bottom where this was the accumulation during the most recent price upward movement, and this is exactly the area where we should see some retracement based on the level of the volumes which we are currently experiencing. If that is true, then the next line of resistance is also the 50MA.
So there is quite a lot in terms of the actual resistance from the market and quite a significant resistance which is occurring right now, so that’s why this week will be extremely important. If the bulls will be able to hold this area to form another zone of accumulation here, then we should see and experience the further increase in price.
If not, as stated before, we can go down straightaway to around 5800 BTC/USDT, so somewhere around here where we’ll see another level of support, maybe 6200 BTC/USDT will be the intermediary stop because this is exactly where we can see another huge volume, horizontal volume building.
So the overall conclusion for the BTC is that, currently, we’re actually on a crossroads. We’re either going to see the bulls defending its gains and putting it further towards the upper side or we should shortly see the bears who will come into the market and the price will start its decrease further down.
Ethereum price analysis
So let’s look at the Ethereum price right now. What you can see from the daily chart is exactly the same triangle as we can identify at the BTC price chart, so it will look something like this.
Currently, almost at the top of the triangle, we’re trying to break that triangle. If we actually draw it based on the previous high, we’re currently above that, however, the only problem for me, for example, is the volume. The volume is not big enough yet to signify that this is a significant breakout and we’ll carry on with the upward movement.
At the same time, we are coming towards the area of the resistance at 165 ETH/USDT. The 50MA will act as a line of resistance as well. So what to expect from here is that we might go and test this resistance and if we will be able to hold the support level of around 150 ETH/USDT, 153 ETH/USDT to stay above this triangle, so the top of the triangle, this will be a very nice and strong signal for the bulls to come in and actually start the upward trend.
The worst-case scenario is very similar to the Bitcoin price. So we can think that there is a potential of a false breakout and then the price will just go straight down, break this triangle to the downside and we’ll go to the area of 120 ETH/USDT at least. So this is the prediction so far based on the Ethereum price at this particular moment.
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